Oklahoma vs. Missouri: Playoff Hopes on the Line in Week 13 Showdown

The Oklahoma Sooners host the Missouri Tigers on Saturday, November 22, 2025, at 12:00 p.m. ET in Norman, Oklahoma — a game that could make or break their College Football Playoff dreams. With ABC broadcasting nationally, the stakes couldn’t be higher: Oklahoma needs to win both of its final two regular-season games to even be considered for the playoff. Missouri, ranked 22nd, enters as a massive underdog — but don’t count them out. Their offense, led by freshman quarterback Matt Zollers, just dropped 49 points on Mississippi State. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s defense, one of the best in the nation, is holding opponents to just 14.8 points per game. This isn’t just another rivalry game. It’s survival.

Line Movement Tells a Story

The betting market has shifted dramatically since the opening lines. Early in the week, Oklahoma was a double-digit favorite — as high as -10 at some books. Now, the consensus has settled around -4.5 to -7.5, depending on the sportsbook. At Borgata Sports, the line moved from -9.5 to -7.5 by Monday, then further to -4.5 by Friday. "We're essentially moving with the broader market," said Tom Gable, Borgata’s sportsbook director. "I haven't seen anything significant here of sharp money taking Missouri at 9.5 or 8.5." Yet the public’s behavior tells a different story. At DraftKings Sportsbook, 60% of bets are on Oklahoma, but 77% of the money is on Missouri. That’s classic "smart money" movement — the kind that makes oddsmakers sweat.

The over/under is equally telling. Set at 42.5 across most books, the Over has drawn 87% of tickets and 79% of the dollars at DraftKings. That’s not just fans betting on fireworks — it’s people who believe Missouri’s offense, despite the QB change, can exploit Oklahoma’s occasional defensive lapses. The Sooners have allowed 12 turnovers this season (55th nationally), and Missouri’s defense has forced 11 (86th). Both teams are 6-4-0 against the spread. This isn’t a mismatch. It’s a chess match.

Who’s Really Driving This Game?

Oklahoma’s strength is clear: defense. Ranked 8th nationally in points allowed, their unit under Brent Venables has stifled top offenses all season. But their offense? Only 64th in scoring at 28.3 points per game. Quarterback John Mateer, who leads all ballcarriers with 104 rushing attempts and 7 rushing touchdowns, is more of a dual-threat than a traditional passer. He’s the engine — but not the whole machine.

Missouri’s offense, by contrast, is explosive. They average 34.9 points per game (23rd in the nation), and their star, running back Ahmad Hardy, has rushed for over 100 yards in all but three games. His career-best 300-yard, three-touchdown performance against Mississippi State wasn’t a fluke — it was a statement. Even without their starting QB, Missouri’s offense has found rhythm. And now, freshman Matt Zollers is stepping into the spotlight. He’s not polished, but he’s fearless. He’s thrown for 1,100 yards and 8 touchdowns in three starts, and he’s shown the poise of someone who’s been there before.

Here’s the twist: Oklahoma’s offense hasn’t scored more than 31 points in any of its last four games. Yet they’ve won them all — because their defense has held opponents to 10 points or fewer in three of those. If Missouri can get to 28, they’ll win. If Oklahoma can hold them under 20, they’ll survive.

Why This Game Matters Beyond the Box Score

For Oklahoma, this isn’t just about the College Football Playoff. It’s about legacy. A loss here — especially to a team that’s lost its starting quarterback — would be catastrophic. The Sooners haven’t missed the playoff since 2019. They’re chasing their first appearance since 2021. A win keeps them alive, and likely secures a spot in the Big 12 Championship game. A loss? It’s back to the Cotton Bowl, maybe even the Liberty Bowl. And for a program with Oklahoma’s pedigree, that’s a step backward.

For Missouri, it’s about proving they belong. They’ve played Alabama and Vanderbilt to one-possession games. They’ve lost close ones — but they’ve been in them. A win here, on the road, against a top-10 team, would be the biggest in program history since 2013. It would make Zollers a household name and turn Hardy into a Heisman candidate. It would show the SEC that Missouri isn’t just a team trying to survive — they’re ready to compete.

What the Experts Are Saying

Fox Sports’ Data Skrive model projects Oklahoma 30, Missouri 18 — favoring the Sooners to cover the -7.5 spread and the game to go over 42.5 points. But The Oklahoman predicts a tighter 25-20 victory, citing Venables’ defense as the deciding factor. Team Rankings has Oklahoma favored by 5.5, while VegasInsider.com lists them at -4.5. The inconsistency reflects uncertainty. Is Oklahoma’s defense good enough to shut down a hot offense? Or is Missouri’s resilience — and the Sooners’ offensive stagnation — setting up an upset?

One thing’s clear: the betting public isn’t buying the hype. The money’s on Missouri. The stats say Oklahoma should win. But college football has never been about stats alone.

What’s Next?

If Oklahoma wins, they’ll head to their final game against Texas Tech with playoff hopes still alive — and a likely Big 12 title game berth on the line. A loss? The Sooners’ season becomes a cautionary tale of missed opportunity. For Missouri, a win sends shockwaves through the SEC. They’ll be ranked in the top 15 next week, and suddenly, every team on their schedule — including Alabama next year — will have to account for them.

Either way, this game will be remembered. Not for the rankings. Not for the lines. But for the moment a freshman quarterback refused to back down — and a storied program had to fight for every inch.